Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $917,503$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,010,482.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,010,482.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,783$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,338.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,338.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,937$ on 2020-11-07

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,653,561$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,706,246.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,706,246.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $162,269$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,905.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(162,905.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $352,651$ on 2020-11-07

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $519,977$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{475,882.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 112.7)}}\) (asimptote \(475,882.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,499$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,357.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 111.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,357.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,626$ on 2020-11-07

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $142,427$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,119.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.5)}}\) (asimptote \(143,119.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,790$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,390.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 144.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,390.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,412$ on 2020-11-07

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,236,851$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681,013.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681,013.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,348$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,537.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 207.6)}}\) (asimptote \(50,537.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $150,190$ on 2020-11-07

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $173,486$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198,489.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 156.2)}}\) (asimptote \(198,489.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,815$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,133.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 179.2)}}\) (asimptote \(18,133.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,623$ on 2020-11-07

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,136,447$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,134,388.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 166.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,134,388.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,595$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,192.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 148.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,192.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74,770$ on 2020-11-07

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $66,941$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,999.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 195.9)}}\) (asimptote \(76,999.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,479$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,638.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 192.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,638.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,308$ on 2020-11-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Bolivia recovered 68%
Venezuela recovered 64%
Argentina recovered 14%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $94,698$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,240.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 170.5)}}\) (asimptote \(99,240.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $824$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{899.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 162.9)}}\) (asimptote \(899.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,372$ on 2020-11-07