Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $917,503$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,010,482.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,010,482.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,783$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,338.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,338.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,937$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,653,561$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,706,246.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,706,246.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $162,269$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,905.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(162,905.2\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $352,651$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $519,977$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{475,882.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 112.7)}}\) (asimptote \(475,882.9\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $14,499$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,357.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 111.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,357.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,626$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $142,427$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,119.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.5)}}\) (asimptote \(143,119.8\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,790$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,390.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 144.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,390.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,412$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,236,851$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681,013.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681,013.1\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,348$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,537.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 207.6)}}\) (asimptote \(50,537.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $150,190$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $173,486$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198,489.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 156.2)}}\) (asimptote \(198,489.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,815$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,133.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 179.2)}}\) (asimptote \(18,133.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,623$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,136,447$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,134,388.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 166.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,134,388.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,595$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,192.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 148.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,192.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $74,770$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $66,941$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,999.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 195.9)}}\) (asimptote \(76,999.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,479$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,638.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 192.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,638.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,308$ on 2020-11-07
